In terms of geopolitical impact, nothing could be more important than the United States’ (US) shift from strategic cooperation to strategic competition with China.

Looking at the economic landscape at the start of 2022, one cannot help but notice the emergence of new obstacles to a robust recovery. The United States (US), Europe, China, and others face a growing list of remarkably similar short- and longer-term challenges. The pandemic remains the most immediate concern. Without full global vaccination, new COVID-19 variants will continue to emerge, potentially forcing governments to renew partial or full lockdowns.

The United States (US) and China are competing for dominance in technology. America has long been at the forefront in developing the technologies (bio, nano, information) that are central to economic growth in the 21st century. Moreover, US research universities dominate higher education globally. In Shanghai Jiao Tong University’s annual Academic Ranking of World Universities, 16 of the top 20 institutions are in the US; none is in China.

As United States (US) President Joe Biden’s administration implements its strategy of great power competition with China, analysts seek historical metaphors to explain the deepening rivalry. But while many invoke the onset of the Cold War, a more worrisome historical metaphor is the start of World War I. In 1914, all the great powers expected a short third Balkan War.

When the time comes to evaluate United States (US) President Joe Biden’s international legacy, one variable will be enormously significant: the relationship that his administration forges with China.