Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling party held a commanding lead in opinion polls released before his expected announcement of a snap general election later on Monday.
A poll published in the Nikkei newspaper on Monday said Abe’s LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) held a 44 percent to eight percent lead over the main opposition Democratic Party. Another survey by Kyodo News published on Sunday showed the LDP with a more than three-to-one margin against its closest rival, with 42 percent still undecided.
Abe will call the poll for October 22 at a press conference in the early evening on Monday in Tokyo, according to three people with knowledge of his ruling coalition’s plans. Heightened tensions with North Korea have boosted his approval rating after a series of scandals, and may help Abe retain his coalition’s two-thirds majority in the lower house of parliament.
Abe has served a total of almost six years as prime minister: he had a truncated term a decade ago, and came back to power in a landslide in 2012. He could serve until 2021 if re-elected as party leader next year, making him the longest-serving prime minister in Japanese history.
While the Democratic Party is splintering, Abe faces a challenge from a new national party set up by an associate of popular Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike. After defecting from the LDP, she crushed it in a July election for the metropolitan assembly.
Inappropriate Timing
The Nikkei poll said eight percent supported the new party, while 20 percent were undecided. A majority said it was inappropriate for Abe to dissolve the lower house this month, more than a year before his government’s term is set to expire. Nikkei Research surveyed 1,044 people aged 18 or older by phone.
Kyodo reported that its survey conducted over the weekend showed 27 percent of respondents saying they would vote for Abe’s LDP, compared with eight percent for the Democratic Party. Sixty-four percent said they don’t support his drive for a fresh mandate, the report said, without giving details on the number of respondents or margin of error.
The ruling party’s campaign will focus on a pledge to increase education spending by putting off a target for reining in the budget deficit, as well as a more divisive plan to revise the pacifist constitution, according to domestic media reports.
Abe is seeking a two trillion yen (18 billion dollars) economic package, the Yomiuri newspaper reported Monday, without attribution. The premier may also renew his pledge to implement a planned increase in the nation’s unpopular consumption tax. – Bloomberg