Christmas get-togethers may need to be downsized as Omicron is now “very likely” to increase the death toll in Europe even if it proves to be less severe, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has said.
The new COVID variant’s high transmissibility means that more people are forecast by the EU agency to be admitted to hospital or killed this winter than previously projected.
The risk assessment, published on Wednesday, advises governments they urgently need to reintroduce COVID restrictions, with one option being to advise families and friends to avoid mixing over the festive season.
Dr Andrea Ammon, director of the ECDC, based in Stockholm, said: “We assess the probability of further spread of the Omicron variant in the EU/European economic area as very high, and it is considered very likely to cause additional hospitalisations and fatalities, further to those already expected from previous forecasts that consider only the Delta variant.”
“In the current situation, vaccination alone will not allow us to prevent the impact of the Omicron variant, because there will be no time to address the vaccination gaps that still exist.”
Beyond ensuring that masks are worn and public spaces and buses and trains remain uncrowded, Ammon said governments “should also consider advising reduced inter-household mixing”. She added: “Exercising additional caution is recommended when travelling and when there is contact between people of different ages during the holiday season”.
Anecdotal evidence from South Africa has suggested that Omicron may cause milder disease. But the ECDC’s assessment warns that “even if the severity of disease caused by the Omicron variant of concern is equal or lower than the severity of the Delta variant of concern, the increased transmissibility and resulting exponential growth of cases will rapidly outweigh any benefits of a potentially reduced severity”.
The agency’s assessment adds: “Therefore, the Omicron variant of concern is considered likely to cause additional hospitalisations and fatalities, further to those already expected from previous forecasts that consider only the Delta variant of concern.”
On Wednesday, South Africa reported a record number of daily COVID infections, with the figure of 26,976 surpassing a peak of 26,485 new cases in early July during a third wave driven by the Delta variant.
There is currently a mixed picture on infections across Europe, with some countries experiencing a slump in cases. But governments across the continent have warned their populations of an imminent increase because of the new variant.
Denmark and Norway have announced stricter COVID measures because of their soaring infection numbers, while Dutch and Belgian primary schools will close early for Christmas.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, tweeted: “We are facing another Christmas in pandemic mode. But we are more prepared to fight the virus than ever. Over 66 percent of Europeans have received two shots. And 62 million people already had their boosters, which is the best currently available protection against Omicron.”
The ECDC said there was “serious concern” about clusters of cases among the vaccinated but that boosters would “increase protection against severe outcomes from the Delta variant of concern and possibly from Omicron”.
Ammon said the onus was now on governments to “ramp up efforts to increase full vaccination in people not yet vaccinated or only partially vaccinated, as well as to administer booster doses to all eligible as soon as possible”.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of The ASEAN Post.