Cold War

Ukraine: A Pawn For US, NATO, and Russia?

The current military standoff in Ukraine somewhat mirrors one of the most frightening and nerve-wracking episodes of the Cold War, and that’s the “Cuban Missile Crisis” where leaders of the United States (US) and the Soviet Union was engaged in a tense and stressful 13-day political and military standoff in October 1962 over the installation of nuclear-armed Soviet missiles on Cuba just 90 miles from US shores. The US then was prepared to use military force if necessary to neutralize

20 February 2022
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What Does China Gain From The Ukraine Crisis?

In recent days, Beijing has called for calm on both sides and the end of a Cold War mentality, while also making it clear it supports Moscow's concerns.It would seem obvious that China would side with its long-time ally and former Communist comrade Russia.

4 February 2022
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A World Of Growing Disorder

My book, A World in Disarray, was published five years ago this month. The book’s thesis was that the Cold War’s end did not usher in an era of greater stability, security, and peace, as many expected. Instead, what emerged was a world in which conflict was much more prevalent than cooperation. Some criticised the book at the time as being unduly negative and pessimistic. In retrospect, the book could have been criticised for its relative optimism.

7 January 2022
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The Security Costs Of America's China Focus

During the Cold War, Europe was America’s strategic priority. East Asia was largely a sideshow, even though the United States (US) fought bloody wars in Korea and Vietnam, and also provided security for Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. But in the unfolding new cold war between the US and China, America’s strategic priorities have flipped.

4 January 2022
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World Powers Issue Pledge To Prevent Nuclear War

Five global nuclear powers pledged Monday to prevent atomic weapons spreading and to avoid nuclear conflict, in a rare joint statement setting aside rising West-East tensions to reaffirm a goal of a nuke-free world."We believe strongly that the further spread of such weapons must be prevented," said permanent UN Security Council members China, France, Russia, the UK and the United States, adding: "A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought."The statement was issu

4 January 2022
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China's Xi Warns Of 'Cold War' Tensions In APAC

Chinese President Xi Jinping warned on Thursday against a return to Cold War-era tensions in the Asia-Pacific, urging greater cooperation on pandemic recovery and climate change.Amid growing tensions with the United States (US) over Taiwan, partially offset by a surprise deal between Beijing and Washington on climate, Xi said all countries in the region must work together on joint challenges."Attempts to draw ideological lines or form small circles on geo-political grounds are bound to f

11 November 2021
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How China’s Past Shapes Xi's World View

China is now a global power, something scarcely imaginable just a few decades ago.Its power sometimes stems from cooperation with the wider world, such as signing up to the Paris climate agreement.Or sometimes it means competition with it, such as the Belt and Road Initiative, a network of construction projects in more than 60 countries that has brought investment to many parts of the world deprived of western loans.Yet there is also a highly confrontational tone to much of China's globa

25 October 2021
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Biden Says US Will Defend Taiwan If China Attacks

President Joe Biden has said the United States (US) would come to Taiwan’s defence and had a commitment to defend the island China claims as its own, forcing the White House to clarify for the second time in three months that US policy on the subject has not changed.“Yes, we have a commitment to do that,” Biden said at a CNN town hall on Thursday night when asked if the US would come to the defence of Taiwan, which has complained of mounting military and political pressure from Beijing to acc

22 October 2021
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The Taiwan Triangle

The relationship between the United States (US) and China promises to do much to define this era. And what could determine this relationship might well be whether the two countries are able to continue to avoid armed conflict over Taiwan. But with signs that the chances of conflict are growing, the question facing the US and its partners is how to avoid that outcome without sacrificing essential interests. Conceptual framing is always critical to foreign policy.

19 October 2021
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The China Sleepwalking Syndrome

As United States (US) President Joe Biden’s administration implements its strategy of great power competition with China, analysts seek historical metaphors to explain the deepening rivalry. But while many invoke the onset of the Cold War, a more worrisome historical metaphor is the start of World War I. In 1914, all the great powers expected a short third Balkan War.

5 October 2021
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Why AUKUS Is Needed

The basic text making the case for an international-relations rulebook was provided by the ancient Greek historian Thucydides in his account of the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta in the fifth century BCE.

25 September 2021
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