Growth

Bull Or Bear In 2021?

In my previous commentaries on the peculiar world of equity markets in 2020, I offered a bullish outlook for how events would unfold as the year progressed (with all due caveats for the market’s overall unpredictability). In the event, things have broadly played out as I anticipated, owing to a remarkable monetary – and fiscal-policy expansion and the timely arrival of vaccines that appear capable of ending this dreadful pandemic. What can we expect in 2021?

17 December 2020
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China Can Spend More To Grow More

China’s economy seems largely to have bounced back from the COVID-19 shock. It registered 4.9 percent annual growth in the third quarter of 2020, and the rate may well exceed five percent growth in the fourth quarter. The result would be at least two percent annual full-year growth – not bad at a time when much of the world is facing a pandemic-induced recession. But that doesn’t mean smooth sailing ahead.

9 December 2020
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Power Shift: China’s Post-COVID Rise

The inevitable rise of China as a global power that is increasingly challenging the supremacy and hegemony of the United States (US) both in the Asia Pacific and the world has been one of the dominant issues that has received a great deal of media coverage. Both locally and internationally, it continuously predominates attention in foreign policy circles and among local and international academics and experts of international relations and global politics. And in as far this

1 November 2020
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Shenzhen’s Game-Changing Reform

Early this month, on the 40th anniversary of Shenzhen’s designation as a (SEZ), Chinese President Xi Jinping unveiled a blueprint for building the city into a trade, finance, and technology hub. Most China-watchers have focused on what this means for Hong Kong, Shanghai, or at most the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area.

28 October 2020
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China Leads Again

Just as China led the world in economic recovery in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008, it is playing a similar role today. Its post-COVID rebound is gathering momentum amid a developed world that remains on shaky ground. Unfortunately, this is a bitter pill for many to swallow – especially in the United States (US), where demonisation of China has reached epic proportions.The two crises are, of course, different.

27 October 2020
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Vietnam: ASEAN’s New De Facto Leader?

Vietnam, as the current Chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for 2020, has been actively involved with the association since 1995 when it joined the bloc with the aim of bringing all Southeast Asian countries together to promote regional peace, freedom, and prosperity. Vietnam has been making great strides in projecting itself as an effective leader, particularly with its proactive governance in handling the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change policy, and for its

17 October 2020
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Don’t Overestimate The COVID-19 Recovery

The world economy has risen from the depths of the initial COVID-19 plunge. But the recovery has been tepid, uneven, and fragile – and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future.Start with the good news.

16 October 2020
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Reducing Tensions With China

While much of the hand wringing over China has abated somewhat during the COVID-19 crisis, the fears animating Western attitudes toward that country have not disappeared, and could resurface at any moment.

13 October 2020
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The Perils Of Big COVID Government In Asia

Asia is home to many exemplars of small but effective government, countries where sound policies and strong institutions underpin economic stability and robust growth. But during the COVID-19 crisis, many are pursuing expansive macroeconomic interventions and implementing measures that infringe on privacy. They are perched on the edge of a slippery slope.To be sure, extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.

2 October 2020
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China’s Rapid Shift To A Digital Economy

Despite taking a serious hit from COVID-19 lockdowns, China’s economy has proved resilient. It has not, however, fully bounced back: some activities, especially in the service sector, simply cannot be revived. Yet, unlike most of the world, China seems unlikely to become mired in a long recession, not least because of its rapid digital transformation.

8 September 2020
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Quality Energy Infrastructure For Sustainability

Rapid economic development over the past two decades has transformed the Southeast Asian region to the point where it is able to participate in international production networks which allows more exports of manufactured products, textiles and other primary high-quality valued-added products.

13 August 2020
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China’s Fiscal Dilemma

COVID-19 hit the Chinese economy hard in the first quarter of 2020, causing real gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by 6.8 percent year on year. But since the city of Wuhan emerged from lockdown in early April, the economy has gradually returned to normal, and grew by 3.2 percent in the second quarter. According to the consensus view, China’s current potential GDP growth rate is six percent.

27 July 2020
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