The Four Paths Of US-China Relations

There is no bilateral diplomatic relationship more consequential than the one between the US and China, which affects not only the two countries but all of humanity. And now, the future of this relationship hinges on who will lead each country in the years ahead.

2 September 2020
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The Japan Shinzo Abe Has Left Behind

Shinzo Abe’s sudden resignation (on health grounds) ends the tenure of Japan’s longest-serving prime minister. The country’s most internationally recognised statesman since 1945, Abe has been, among other things, the world leader most keen on playing golf with United States (US) President Donald Trump. Though he leaves with a still-weak economy, Abe has made Japan stronger and more autonomous in matters of defense and foreign policy.

1 September 2020
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Epidemics, Economics, And Externalities

COVID-19 and its collateral damage continue to leave a trail of devastation around the world. Millions of businesses have closed, with many having no realistic prospect of reopening. Millions of people have lost their jobs. Millions are without health care. Some families are suffering from food insecurity for the first time.

31 August 2020
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The COVID Comorbidity Crisis

Growing evidence shows that COVID-19 survivors can suffer from long-term health effects, not least heart-related complications. New research published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) shows that many people who recover from the virus have heart inflammation (myocarditis). Of 100 survivors in the study, 78 had evidence of previous heart inflammation, and 60 showed ongoing inflammation at the time of observation. This medical complication should worry us all.

28 August 2020
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Saving Liberal Democracy

I belong to a fortunate generation. Born in the United Kingdom (UK) in 1944, toward the end of a world war that killed between 70 million and 85 million people, I have neither been bombed nor had to fight on any battlefields. I grew up in a country and continent that were at peace and thus able to enjoy the economic benefits of unprecedented cross-border cooperation.

27 August 2020
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China’s Digital Currency Will Rise But Not Rule

A few years ago, China’s currency seemed to be rising inexorably to global dominance. The renminbi had become the fifth most important currency for international payments, and in 2016, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) included it in the basket of major currencies that determines the value of Special Drawing Rights (the IMF’s global reserve asset). Since then, however, the renminbi’s progress has stalled.

26 August 2020
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The End Of Western Dominance?

The confrontation between China and the West is escalating almost daily. The conflict is about technology, trade, global market share, and supply chains, but also about fundamental values. Underpinning this economic and ideological competition is the goal of global predominance in the 21st century. But why is the current escalation happening now? It is not as though the West suddenly had some epiphany about the implications of China’s rise.

25 August 2020
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China Alone

In his most recent New Year’s speech, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that 2020 would be “a milestone.” Xi was right, but not in the way he expected. Far from having “friends in every corner of the world,” as he boasted in his speech, China has severely damaged its international reputation, alienated its partners, and left itself with only one real lever of power: brute force. Whether the prospect of isolation thwarts Xi’s imperialist ambitions, however, remains to be seen.

24 August 2020
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A Better Alternative To Banning WeChat

Shortly after United States (US) President Donald Trump issued an executive order effectively banning the Chinese-owned social-media app TikTok, he issued a second order prohibiting “any transaction that is related to WeChat by any person … as identified by the Secretary of Commerce.” According to the White House, the WeChat ban – which will take effect on 20 September – is intended to protect Americans and visiting Chinese in the US from violations of privacy by the Chinese governme

21 August 2020
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Decoupling From China Will Hurt The US

“Decoupling” is central to the geopolitical duel between the United States (US) and China. Conceived and promoted by hawks in US President Donald Trump’s administration, this strategy has now become America’s principal tool to weaken Chinese power.

20 August 2020
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South Korea On Top Again

On 11 August, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) signalled that it would be revising its 2020 real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for South Korea from -1.2 percent to -0.8 percent, adding to the confidence that the country is faring better economically than any other OECD member.

19 August 2020
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How To Count Humans

New research published this July in The Lancet forecasts that continued growth “through the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world’s population.” Rather, the global population is likely to peak in 2064 at 9.7 billion, before declining to 8.8 billion by 2100.

18 August 2020
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