Can United States (US) President-elect Joe Biden walk and chew gum at the same time?

On 12 December, Jimmy Lai, a successful businessman and brave campaigner for freedom and democracy, was led into court in Hong Kong in handcuffs and chains, accused of breaking the national security law recently imposed by the Communist Party of China (CPC).

In my previous commentaries on the peculiar world of equity markets in 2020, I offered a bullish outlook for how events would unfold as the year progressed (with all due caveats for the market’s overall unpredictability). In the event, things have broadly played out as I anticipated, owing to a remarkable monetary – and fiscal-policy expansion and the timely arrival of vaccines that appear capable of ending this dreadful pandemic. What can we expect in 2021?

Many managers are treating this year’s pandemic-induced shift to work from home as though it were standard telecommuting. But it’s not, and operating under the assumption that it is can ultimately harm employees’ morale. While office workers are typically faring better than essential workers during the pandemic, the abrupt shift to remote work was jarring, and its effects should not be overlooked.

Global indebtedness has never been greater than it is today. With interest rates so low for so long, anyone who could borrow has done so. But, even with rock-bottom borrowing costs, the economic fallout from the pandemic has forced one vulnerable country after another to declare sovereign default, or to signal that it may do so soon. Worse, the main creditor to debt-distressed emerging economies, China, has little experience managing cascading sovereign defaults.

At the United Nations (UN) General Assembly this September, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Given that China has been the planet’s single-largest source of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in recent years – accounting for about 30 percent – decarbonisation there could contribute substantially to the global effort to mitigate climate change. China, of course, will have to rebalance its economy.

The world is not yet sufficiently alarmed by how much the COVID-19 pandemic has ravaged the global economy. We track the daily numbers of infections and casualties. But we are oblivious to the job losses and lives upended, especially in the developing world, where the pandemic has barely elicited a public-health response.The pandemic’s impact on major economies has so far been four times worse than that of the 2008 global financial crisis.

China’s economy seems largely to have bounced back from the COVID-19 shock. It registered 4.9 percent annual growth in the third quarter of 2020, and the rate may well exceed five percent growth in the fourth quarter. The result would be at least two percent annual full-year growth – not bad at a time when much of the world is facing a pandemic-induced recession. But that doesn’t mean smooth sailing ahead.

Australia’s China problem – official contacts frozen and many of our exports under siege – is now gaining attention far beyond our shores.

Last month, 15 Asia-Pacific countries signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The occasion marked what might be the most significant economic achievement since the COVID-19 crisis began. And yet the RCEP – or, indeed, Asia – cannot save the ailing multilateral trading system alone.